Despite the AfD's success: According to an IW study, East Germany needs international skilled workers.

Two news items dominated the first week of September 2026 in East Germany – and at first glance, they point in opposite directions. On September 4th, the German Economic Institute (IW) published a short report with a clear core message : Without international Without skilled workers , employment in the eastern German states would be around 191,000 jobs lower today. Two days later, on September 6, the AfD became the strongest party in the Saxony-Anhalt state election with 43.8 percent of the vote, almost doubling its 2021 result. The election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania follows on September 20, where polls also show the AfD clearly in the lead. For HR departments seeking a skilled worker from the USA , For those seeking to attract British or Canadian companies to Saxony, Thuringia, or Saxony-Anhalt, and for international professionals considering relocation themselves, this simultaneity raises obvious questions: Will the region remain economically attractive? And what does the political climate mean specifically for their own future? Residence permit , the Employment contract or family planning on site? We put the study results into context and explain what actually changes legally – and what doesn't.

Why is the economy growing faster in the east, while employment is stagnating?

In their short report 59/2026, IW economists Fabian Semsarha, Gero Kunath, and Lydia Malin present a seemingly contradictory finding. Between 2015 and 2019, gross domestic product (GDP) in the eastern German states grew even faster than in the west, averaging 2.0 percent per year compared to 1.7 percent. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, growth has slowed considerably nationwide, but the east remains just barely in positive territory at 0.05 percent per year, while western Germany is experiencing a slight contraction of 0.01 percent. The opposite is true for employment: The number of qualified employees subject to social security contributions rose by only 3.0 percent in eastern Germany between 2014/2015 and 2024/2025, compared to 14.6 percent in western Germany. In the current period, between 2019/2020 and 2024/2025, employment in eastern Germany even fell by 1.1 percent, while it rose by 3.9 percent in the west. The reason lies primarily in demographics: The large baby boomers of the GDR era are currently retiring in large numbers, and as a result, the east is losing a disproportionately high number of experienced German workers from the workforce.

What contribution do international skilled workers make to employment stability?

This is precisely where the study's second key finding comes in: Without immigration from EU and third countries, employment in the eastern German states would be around 191,000 skilled workers, or 5.3 percent, lower. Until 2019, German and EU workers were the primary contributors to this growth; since then, the contribution of German skilled workers has been negative due to demographic factors, while the contribution of third-country nationals has been steadily increasing. Regional differences are considerable: In Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia, the number of skilled workers fell by 6,448 and 12,207 respectively, despite immigration. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Brandenburg, the number of German skilled workers also declined, but this was more than offset by international skilled workers – resulting in a net increase of 18,223 and 49,933 employees, respectively. Saxony is the only eastern German state that saw growth in both foreign (+67,317) and German skilled workers (+3,661). International skilled workers are particularly important in shortage occupations: around 160,000 of them currently work in professions with a proven shortage of skilled workers, such as professional drivers, doctors, nurses, automotive technicians, cooks or in catering services.

What legal changes result from the AfD's electoral successes – and what do not?

A sober legal perspective is warranted here, because in our consulting practice we regularly observe that election results trigger uncertainty that goes far beyond the actual legal situation. Residence law – that is, the requirements for a visa, Blue Card, or Opportunity Card – is federal law. It is regulated in the Residence Act, particularly in Sections 18a, 18b, 18g, and 20a for skilled workers, and cannot be changed unilaterally by a state parliament, regardless of which party emerges as the strongest force. Those who already possess a valid residence permit or have pending proceedings are initially not legally affected by a state election result. However, what can certainly change is local administrative practice : Immigration offices are state or local authorities; their staffing levels, digitalization, and processing priorities depend on state budgets and political priorities. A state government cannot change federal laws, but it can certainly influence how quickly, courteously, and legally soundly a local office actually operates – a distinction that many online guides overlook and which has a significant impact on waiting times and appointment scheduling in practice.

How does the political climate affect skilled workers and employers in practice?

From processing several hundred cases, we know that the real challenge rarely lies in the legal text itself, but rather in the actual administrative practice and the perceived climate on the ground. For HR departments looking to send a specialist from the USA, Great Britain, or Canada to East Germany, the political signal of an election is therefore not a purely abstract issue, but a very concrete question of employer branding: Will the specialist accept the offer if colleagues and friends read about the election results? The IW study itself identifies precisely this point as a key factor: Alongside reducing bureaucracy and increasing the availability of resources... The authors explicitly cite cosmopolitanism and the political climate as factors that will influence future immigration. At the same time, they also note: Discrimination in the workplace or in the search for housing is prohibited by law, regardless of the election outcome, and anyone who feels disadvantaged has legal recourse regardless of the prevailing political climate. Those who do nothing and simply wait usually waste valuable time; those who submit applications independently or solely using generic online templates often overlook the specific regional regulations of the respective immigration office, which can determine the success or delay of a procedure.

What specific advice do we have for employers and skilled workers in East Germany right now?

Companies that urgently need an international Those who rely on skilled workers should separate the political debate from the legal planning, yet still consider both together: We support employers in the Deployment and in the development of structured processes for the EU Blue Card or the Opportunity map , so that commitments don't fail due to avoidable formal errors or unrealistic timelines. For skilled workers themselves, we recommend developing their own residency strategy – from application to extension and subsequent steps. Naturalization – plan early and based on the actual legal situation, instead of being guided by current headlines. Especially since the administrative practices of individual offices differ in detail, a comparison is worthwhile: The The Berlin State Office for Immigration, for example, is considered by many clients to be relatively well-structured, while smaller immigration offices in rural areas of eastern Germany operate with different resources. Understanding these differences allows for more realistic planning and helps avoid typical delays.

Conclusion

The IW study and the recent state elections tell the same story from two different perspectives: East Germany is already economically dependent on international skilled workers to cushion the demographically driven decline in employment, while the political climate in parts of the region is becoming increasingly hostile, at least in perception. Legally, a state election result does not initially change existing residence permits or federal law – however, it can influence local administrative practices and the perception of the region among international talent. Employers and skilled workers who want to play it safe should not rely on assumptions, but rather on a sound legal assessment of their specific situation.