Forecast decision on living expenses: How the immigration authorities calculate living expenses

In residence law, securing a livelihood is a key requirement for many residence permits. Whether someone can support themselves independently and without recourse to public funds is assessed as part of a so-called prognosis decision . This is not just a snapshot in time, but a forward-looking assessment by the immigration authorities. This assessment is based on the question: Will the person – assuming unchanged circumstances – be able to cover their living expenses permanently?

The prognosis is based on all relevant known circumstances. It can be based on employment, personal assets, or payments from family members or third parties. The crucial factor is that the funds must be sustainably available. Declarations of commitment pursuant to Section 68 of the Residence Act can also be taken into account.

Self-employed persons, employment contracts and employment histories: Typical case scenarios

For dependent employees, the fixed-term nature of an employment contract is not a disqualification criterion. The decisive factor is whether an extension or permanent contract seems realistic – even "chain contracts" are reviewed from this perspective. Previous employment history plays a significant role: Those who have previously worked regularly are considered capable of integration into the labor market. Seasonal or multiple part-time jobs can also be sufficient, provided they offer long-term security overall. One-off temporary or short-term jobs, however, are usually not sufficient.

Even for self - employed individuals with fluctuating income, not just a single month is considered, but a longer period – for example, through tax assessments. Statements from professional associations or chambers of commerce and industry regarding economic viability can also be considered in the assessment of whether self-employment can provide a sustainable livelihood.

What else the immigration authorities consider when making the forecast

The prognosis always takes a holistic view: It is not required that funds be fully documented for the entire planned period of stay. Rather, it must be realistically estimated that the applicant will be able to secure his or her livelihood for the duration of the intended stay . Future employment of family members may also be included in the assessment. Particular attention is paid to the sustainability of income. Income from overtime only counts if it is within the statutory working hours limits ( Section 3 of the Working Hours Act ). Those who permanently work more than 48 hours per week cannot generally include the additional income in the prognosis.

Conclusion Forecast decision stay

The decision regarding a secure livelihood is always individual – it takes into account the financial situation, professional profile, legal framework, and the intended purpose of residence. Applicants should therefore gather all relevant documents and evidence early on to ensure a positive prognosis.