New IAB study: Why Germany's skilled workers are packing their bags

It's a decision that often begins quietly, at night around the kitchen table or during a phone call with family back home. The question of whether Germany is still the right place for one's life, career, and the safety of one's children is currently on the minds of more people than ever before. While politicians are desperately searching for ways to attract skilled workers from around the world, reality paints a far more complex picture. Behind the scenes of our daily consulting practice as a law firm specializing in visa law , we are increasingly witnessing the cracks appearing in the dreams of many migrants living in Germany . It's no longer just about arriving, but increasingly about staying – or leaving. The latest data from the IAB online survey "International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany" (IMPa) sheds light on a development that should deeply concern us as a society and as a business location.

Between thought experiment and packed suitcases

Looking at the raw numbers, it becomes clear that dissatisfaction is not a fringe phenomenon . Nationwide, roughly one in four migrants seriously considered leaving Germany last year. This 26 percent is more than just a statistical figure; it represents people who are already here, who have learned German, and who work in our companies . However, there is an important legal and psychological distinction that we observe daily in our firm: the mere thought of emigration does not necessarily lead to immediate action. In fact, on average across Germany, only about 3 percent of those surveyed have already made concrete plans to leave. Nevertheless, the study shows that the risk of actually emigrating increases significantly once the ball starts rolling. Those who have considered leaving in the last twelve months are 15 percentage points more likely to actually take the step within the next year. For us as legal advisors , this means that we are often consulted at a critical juncture where the bureaucratic hurdles of immigration law determine long-term life plans.

A patchwork of perspectives: Regional differences

A look at a map of Germany is particularly interesting and revealing. The decision for or against living in the Federal Republic seems to depend heavily on which state one wakes up in. While in metropolitan areas like Berlin, fluctuation and thoughts of leaving are especially high at 35 percent, the north, for example Schleswig-Holstein or Bremen, shows significantly more stable conditions. Here, people seem more likely to put down roots, which is reflected in lower figures for considering leaving and having concrete plans. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, on the other hand, presents a paradoxical picture. Although comparatively few people here are merely "thinking" about leaving Germany, the proportion of those who have already made concrete plans is the highest nationwide at 9 percent. This suggests that decision-making processes there are faster and more decisive. In Brandenburg, we see the opposite: Many are dissatisfied and are considering leaving, but taking the step to actually do so is less common. As a law firm, we also interpret this as an indication of how important the local environment, professional integration, and local administrative support are.

The complexity behind statistics

As lawyers, we know that numbers never tell the whole story. The IAB study rightly points out that the groups surveyed differ considerably. A highly qualified IT specialist from India living in Hamburg has completely different motives for migration and a different prospect of remaining in Germany than a refugee in a rural region of Saarland. Furthermore, "sorting effects " play a role: Many migrants move within Germany, choosing the federal state that offers them the best opportunities, and only emigrate if this internal move also fails to bring the desired success. The regional differences are therefore not only a result of local politics, but also a reflection of the individual qualifications and length of stay of people in a given area. In our practice, we often see that slow processing of visa applications or the denial of family reunification in certain regions provides the final impetus for leaving Germany.

Conclusion: A wake-up call for Germany as a business location

In summary, the high number of people considering emigration is a serious warning. Even if taking the step towards concrete planning often takes time, the emotional alienation from Germany as a place to live is already well established in many minds. The regional disparities, in particular, demonstrate that we lack a unified culture of welcome or acceptance. For us as a law firm, this underscores the need not only to advise clients legally, but also to show them ways to thrive within a complex system and secure their future here in the long term. Germany simply cannot afford to lose the potential of those who have already embarked on the difficult path of migration.